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What is interesting in this seat is that the combined Right Wing minor party vote is 15% (ONP, TOP and PFP) this is the same as what what in 2022 when there was anti-lockdown backlash. I remember one polling saying ONP will now make the 2CP in this seat. i feel what happened is that there was a left ward drift in this seat among Muslims/Non Europeans reversing anti-lockdown sentiment but a further right ward shift among Southern/Eastern Europeans. Kos Samras said yesterday that he is picking many Greeks/Italians and Croatians especilaly second Generation one moving to ONP
@Nimalan, I wonder if Southern/Eastern Europeans is an example of a group where it is actually the younger generations rather than the older generations that are more right-wing and anti-multicultural unlike their Anglo Australians (and even Asian Australians to some extent) counterparts which is the complete opposite.
@ Marh
I agree as younger generations have grown up being accepted by the Anglo majority while they remain socially conservative. They also grew up with benefits of social mobility In hindsight i should have picked this up when i was a teenager growing up in Manningham in the Early 2000s with a large Greek/Italian community. The communities were very proud and never hid the identity but they were socially conservative and placed importance in Family Honour, Extended Family and Religion as a cultural idenrity. With Anglo Australians younger generations have lost religion. Interesting while there is little immigration these days Greek Orthodoxy is actually rising so younger generations are not losing religion. Nearly all Greeks i am friends with and grew up married in churches and their children are still recieving Christeinings which is not happening among younger Anglos.
In my experience, most Croatians that I know are especially conservative. Many have had an almost visceral hatred towards the Labor Party even back in the early 2000s, despite living in the western suburbs Labor heartland. Many are also quite nationalistic – towards both Australia and Croatia – so I assume that One Nation’s brand of nationalist populism will resonate with them.
@ Trent
That my explain why Labor is loosing ground in Gorton which has a signifiant Croatian community. Scullin has a very large Macedonian community. However in Gorton there is a the growth of other CALD communities that will soften this impact. In Scullin, there is also growth of Muslims and South Asian which will offset this trend
My assumption is that a lot of the Croatian vote was probably already parked with the Liberal Party, but probably bled to minor right-wing parties more recently and will now bleed to One Nation. Whereas I think the Greek, Italian and Macedonian vote would have been more dispersed so One Nation could be gaining from both parties more among those communities.
It might be interesting though that for second generations Asian Australians though that upward social mobility has not translated to conservative votes in fact it might have done the opposite probably due to this demographic being heavily University Educated.
@ Marh
I think that is one reason the other thing and Kos Samaras mentioned this in a debate with Drew Pavlou an entire generation (3rd Generation) of Southern/Eastern Europeans grew up without being demonized and being teased or looked down. We have to remember that this community has had its 3rd Generation now adults and raising children. For non Europeans they are certain communities where we seeing the 3rd Generation now emerging (Turkish, Lebanese and Vieetnamese). i think Lebanese Christians maybe moving rightwards the suburb of Oatlands is one example but for Lebanese Muslims they never had breathing room they only got a 3 year break from the start of the Pandemic to October 7th. I think Turkish unlike Greeks will be discriminatied more due to Religion in Australia. I wonder if 3rd Generation Vietnamese Australians who are Catholic may become more right wing?